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Metropolitan Forecasting Model

The Metropolitan Forecasting Model (CMTFM), which is composed of over 1,800 behavioural equations and identities, is a mathematical representation of 27 Canadian metropolitan economies. The model contains the following series for each metropolitan economy:

  • Real gross domestic product at basic prices for 11 industries 
  • Employment for 11 industries and other labour market indicators 
  • Population by source of migration 
  • Income and transfers 
  • Housing starts and retail sales

The results of the CMTFM are internally consistent with the output of the Canadian and provincial models. For example, the Canadian fiscal and monetary policies driving federal income taxes and spending, interest rates, and the exchange rate are the main determinants of equations in the metropolitan GDP and income blocks. Also, many provincial variables are used as exogenous drivers (manufacturing output, exports of autos and parts, provincial government spending, and income taxes) linking the activity in the main sectors of the provincial economy to specific sectors at the metropolitan level.

In addition, the CMTFM includes the simultaneous causality relations among equations within the CMA’s economy. This ensures that the interdependencies of sectors in the local economy are reflected in the results. For example, the Toronto manufacturing sector will drive transportation and warehousing output, which in turn determines employment. Any increase or decrease in employment will affect income, which in turn affects demand for services, thereby boosting or lowering output in many services categories—and further affecting employment and income. This ensures that the indirect economic impact of projects is taken into account when shock analysis is performed.

What Data is Available?

The indicators produced by the metropolitan forecasting model are available in our Metropolitan Forecast Database Service.

View the data available in the Metropolitan Forecast Database Service

Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

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