Territorial Forecasting Model

The Territorial Forecasting Model (TFM) consists of just over 300 equations, of which about half are behavioural. The TFM disaggregates real territorial gross domestic product into roughly 25 categories, which are determined by an input–output structure. Labour productivity and the current level of industrial output determine employment by industry. Standard econometric techniques were employed to derive empirical relationships between variables. In some cases, data restrictions forced us to employ calibration techniques to estimate key relationships among economic variables in the model. The TFM model forecasts real value-added in the economy (referred to as GDP at basic prices), as well as all components of both expenditures and income.

The TFM model is used to produce a 10-year economic outlook for Nunavut, Yukon, and the Northwest Territories. The model relies on a consistent set of assumptions formed from our world, Canadian, and provincial forecasts, and ongoing monitoring of international, national, and territorial events. Various sources are utilized in the construction of the historical data, but the main data source is the annual Provincial and Territorial Economic Accounts (PEA) from Statistics Canada.

What Data is Available?

The indicators produced by the territorial forecasting model are available in our Territorial Forecast Database Service.

View the data available in the Territorial Forecast Database Service

Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.